Paco Alcácer

[mark1nhu]

Except BBZ was using minutes played to get to his conclusion, which mitigates the unfair difference between a starter and a bench player.

 

[BBZ8800]

Except BBZ was using minutes played to get to his conclusion, which mitigates the unfair difference between a starter and a bench player.

Minutes per goal.
200 minutes played and scoring 1 goal is the same as 2000 minutes played, scoring 10.
Ratio is 200 minutes per 1 goal.

Imagine playing 2 matches for Gijon against Barca and scoring 1 goal over 180 minutes.
Then imagine Barca's player against Gijon who scored 1 goal in those 180 minutes.
Barca had possession 70:30 and shots 20:4 and 20:2 over 180 minutes, winning 6:1 and 5:0.
Who do you think did a better job?
1) a Barca's player scoring 1 goal against Gijon while his team scored 11 in total and created 40 shots
2) a Gijon's player scoring 1 against Barca while his team scored 1 in total and created 6 shots in the same time?
Not to mention again that Barca's players will shoot against crappy Gijon's GK and against Gijon's crappy defense, while Gijon's Cf will try to score a goal with Pique/Masch on his back and facing Bravo/Mats 1 on 1.

Shots on target from your team is a totally different factor which reveals some other things.

How exactly does that create an unfair difference?

 

[jamrock]

Looking into stats that are facts like goals to shots ratio does make more sense.

But the stats he just came up with or just those to fit his point of view, politician type stats.

I'm merely pointing out the undeniable fact, that a player who starts for a good team, will get more chances to score,than a player who comes off the bench for a great one.

Lukaku, gets more chances per game than a *insert x player here that comes off the bench for a better team*

Does it mean that player is better than lukaku, no. But lukaku does get more chances, as a result of starting and finishing most games. These are facts not stats.

 

[jamrock]

There is a difference between barca players which Is a generalization and munir or whoever who Comes off the bench,abd thus that diminishes the amount of shots in goal or chances created while that player is on the field.

I would guess to way less than Valencia create the entire game.

Do your point,is still lacking.

 

[Luftstalag14]

Even on minutes level, a starter has the advantage of being relatively in form than a bench player who could be hot and cold, so I don't think even on a minute per goal level it is a fair comparison.

 

[jamrock]

Exactly there is a lot more caveats that goes in favor of a starter.

 

[BBZ8800]

Even on minutes level, a starter has the advantage of being relatively in form than a bench player who could be hot and cold, so I don't think even on a minute per goal level it is a fair comparison.

With that way, there is 0 point in comparing any stats:
1) if one player plays for Barca, and the other one for xx team=you can't compare them, since Barca creates way more shots
2) if both players play for Barca, but one is a starter and the other one is a sub player=you can't compare them since the other one will play hot and cold
3) basically, the only way to compare any stats is=compare 2 players from the same team, who play on the same position, and who are either both starters or subs, plus they need to play in the same matches against the same opponents so that we could have as many as possible equal variables.

With that way of thinking, squawka and all other stats sites make zero sense, since they are comparing players from different teams/different leagues all the time.
Anyway, let's go back to the world where we somehow need to compare players from different teams:

Paco, according to Squawka:
http://www.squawka.com/players/paco-alcacer/stats#total-goals-scored#valencia-cf#spanish-la-liga#23#season-2015/2016#176#all-matches#1-38#zone
-- 49 shots in total in La Liga 2015/16
-- 53% shots on target
-- 3,77 shots needed to score 1 goal
-- 13 goals from 49 shots

Munir, La Liga 2015/16:
-- 16 shots in total
-- 38% shots on target
-- 5,33 shots needed to score 1 goal
-- 3 goals from 16 shots

Also, Munir scored 8 goals last season, BUT:
-- only 3 goals in La liga
-- while he scored 5 goals in 5 Cdr matches
-- like 2 against Villanovense
-- 2 against Espanyol, 2nd leg, when the results from the first leg 4:1 (and 2:0 in the 2nd leg)
So, in majority of stats with minutes per goal, people are counting his stats from Cdr, which should be excluded.

Also, if you check Munir's stats, he played mostly at Nou Camp matches against Mickey Mouse teams, rarely in tougher matches.
http://www.squawka.com/players/munir-el-haddadi/stats#shot-accuracy#barcelona-(current)#spanish-la-liga#23#season-2015/2016#176#all-matches#1-38#zone

-- scored 3 goals:
-- against Eibar, Getafe and Malaga

No matter how we look at stats, Paco just looks like a better player currently, scoring more in a crappy team like Valencia, from a lower amount of attempts.
Plus, he scored 6 goals for Spain NT in 13 appearances.

 

[serghei]

Wait, is there even debatable that Paco Alcacer is clearly better at no9 than Munir? That's pretty obvious, and that's coming from a guy who actually rated Munir even when he was playing badly.

 

[jamrock]

Don't know who is saying he is, bbz just loves writing long post which a bunch of unnecessary stats.

He most be a technocrat in real life

 

[Luftstalag14]

With that way, there is 0 point in comparing any stats:
1) if one player plays for Barca, and the other one for xx team=you can't compare them, since Barca creates way more shots
2) if both players play for Barca, but one is a starter and the other one is a sub player=you can't compare them since the other one will play hot and cold
3) basically, the only way to compare any stats is=compare 2 players from the same team, who play on the same position, and who are either both starters or subs, plus they need to play in the same matches against the same opponents so that we could have as many as possible equal variables.

With that way of thinking, squawka and all other stats sites make zero sense, since they are comparing players from different teams/different leagues all the time.
Anyway, let's go back to the world where we somehow need to compare players from different teams:

Paco, according to Squawka:
http://www.squawka.com/players/paco-alcacer/stats#total-goals-scored#valencia-cf#spanish-la-liga#23#season-2015/2016#176#all-matches#1-38#zone
-- 49 shots in total in La Liga 2015/16
-- 53% shots on target
-- 3,77 shots needed to score 1 goal
-- 13 goals from 49 shots

Munir, La Liga 2015/16:
-- 16 shots in total
-- 38% shots on target
-- 5,33 shots needed to score 1 goal
-- 3 goals from 16 shots

Also, Munir scored 8 goals last season, BUT:
-- only 3 goals in La liga
-- while he scored 5 goals in 5 Cdr matches
-- like 2 against Villanovense
-- 2 against Espanyol, 2nd leg, when the results from the first leg 4:1 (and 2:0 in the 2nd leg)
So, in majority of stats with minutes per goal, people are counting his stats from Cdr, which should be excluded.

Also, if you check Munir's stats, he played mostly at Nou Camp matches against Mickey Mouse teams, rarely in tougher matches.
http://www.squawka.com/players/munir-el-haddadi/stats#shot-accuracy#barcelona-(current)#spanish-la-liga#23#season-2015/2016#176#all-matches#1-38#zone

-- scored 3 goals:
-- against Eibar, Getafe and Malaga

No matter how we look at stats, Paco just looks like a better player currently, scoring more in a crappy team like Valencia, from a lower amount of attempts.
Plus, he scored 6 goals for Spain NT in 13 appearances.

Yes, Alcacer is a better player than Munir at the moment, no question about it. But using certain stats to prove that is misguided, that's all I am saying.

 

[BBZ8800]

Wait, is there even debatable that Paco Alcacer is clearly better at no9 than Munir? That's pretty obvious, and that's coming from a guy who actually rated Munir even when he was playing badly.

I had a feeling that some posters are saying that Paco and Munir are more or less equal players and that we made a huge mistake for letting Munir go and buying the similar player for 30M.

Here are some of those posts:

Per minutes, not a whole lot of difference

So we basically wasted 30 M to get the same player we already had

What is done is done.. We loaned Munir and signed Alcacer.. A lot of people don't agree with that, specially now when Munir started to show some good games.. Barca decided they this way and we can't really do anything about it.. At the end of the season it will be shown if the decision was correct or not!

I tried to easily show how they are not exactly equal players.

But then you can read these replies how we can't compare players from different teams/starters&subs etc, how shots per goal don't say too much, how I am twisting stats in this case (I don't see a reason for this. This is not Neymar's thread I like both Paco and Munir, but it seems that Paco is just better and has a higher ceiling)

 

[mark1nhu]

How exactly does that create an unfair difference?

I was defending your opinion.

I said that your method MITIGATES, not creates, the unfair difference between stats from a starter and a bench player.

I was basically saying that your method turns the comparison fair, so the other user is wrong using player's statuses to argue against it.

 

[gasgas]

With that way, there is 0 point in comparing any stats:
1) if one player plays for Barca, and the other one for xx team=you can't compare them, since Barca creates way more shots
2) if both players play for Barca, but one is a starter and the other one is a sub player=you can't compare them since the other one will play hot and cold
3) basically, the only way to compare any stats is=compare 2 players from the same team, who play on the same position, and who are either both starters or subs, plus they need to play in the same matches against the same opponents so that we could have as many as possible equal variables.

With that way of thinking, squawka and all other stats sites make zero sense, since they are comparing players from different teams/different leagues all the time.
Anyway, let's go back to the world where we somehow need to compare players from different teams:

Paco, according to Squawka:
http://www.squawka.com/players/paco-alcacer/stats#total-goals-scored#valencia-cf#spanish-la-liga#23#season-2015/2016#176#all-matches#1-38#zone
-- 49 shots in total in La Liga 2015/16
-- 53% shots on target
-- 3,77 shots needed to score 1 goal
-- 13 goals from 49 shots

Munir, La Liga 2015/16:
-- 16 shots in total
-- 38% shots on target
-- 5,33 shots needed to score 1 goal
-- 3 goals from 16 shots

Also, Munir scored 8 goals last season, BUT:
-- only 3 goals in La liga
-- while he scored 5 goals in 5 Cdr matches
-- like 2 against Villanovense
-- 2 against Espanyol, 2nd leg, when the results from the first leg 4:1 (and 2:0 in the 2nd leg)
So, in majority of stats with minutes per goal, people are counting his stats from Cdr, which should be excluded.

Also, if you check Munir's stats, he played mostly at Nou Camp matches against Mickey Mouse teams, rarely in tougher matches.
http://www.squawka.com/players/munir-el-haddadi/stats#shot-accuracy#barcelona-(current)#spanish-la-liga#23#season-2015/2016#176#all-matches#1-38#zone

-- scored 3 goals:
-- against Eibar, Getafe and Malaga

No matter how we look at stats, Paco just looks like a better player currently, scoring more in a crappy team like Valencia, from a lower amount of attempts.
Plus, he scored 6 goals for Spain NT in 13 appearances.

Why are you excluding CDR?
That's where we played Munir last season

 

[serghei]

I might get some flack around here for saying this, but to me it's not worth the time to try to prove Alcacer is better than Munir. It's just one of those things that anyone has to agree with, no matter the preference.

 

[BBZ8800]

Why are you excluding CDR?
That's where we played Munir last season

Because majority of football clubs and fans don't rate/care about domestic cup competitions for the last 10-15 years.

In the past clubs used to play only league and cup competitions, when there was no Champions league for 4 clubs from top countries (and tons of money to be earned there) and there was no Supercups like today.
In the past, a league winner played in a Champions cup (1 team per country) and a cup winner played in a somewhat prestige European Cup winner's cup.

20 years ago, Uefa killed the cup winner's cup and since then majority of teams turned only to league and Champions league/Uefa cup, since in top countries, top 5-6-7 teams all promote to a CL/Uefa cup through league's position.
So, league competition secures=>European cups, and European cups bring money.
So, basically, league and European cups are competitions of the highest importance.

Cup doesn't have a European competition anymore, cup isn't too popular among fans and sponsors anymore, and in seasons where majority of top teams/top players like Messi/Neymar/Cr7 play:
1. 38 league matches
2. 10-13 CL matches
3. 10 NT matches
4. World cup/Euros/Copa America
5. xx cup matches
= majority of teams/players needed to "rest" in some matches and one by one, majority of top teams "abandoned" domestic cup competition as the last important and as a competition with the lowest possibility to earn any money.

So, our fans can reply: but Cdr is a very important competition for us (because of emotional, historical and political reasons), but at the end of the day, that is a competition where majority of top teams will play Masips and similar players in all matches and they will use all 11 starters only if they reach semis and a final in May.

A lot of people on our forum rate Cdr as something important (and we count this title in doubles, trebles and sixtuples), but from neutral football fans, it is as important more or less as Olympic's football tournament.
Majority of countries like Italy, Germany, Spain, France "abandoned" and stopped caring about cup competitions looong time ago.
England was the last country who still cared about their famous FC Cup.
But in the last 10 years, even England gave up and FA Cup is dying and not too many fans/clubs care about it and it will be even worse in the future.

Here are some articles about how FA cup and other cup competitions died:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/fa-cup/10548716/Does-the-FA-Cup-still-matter.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/10831795/Does-anyone-care-about-the-FA-Cup-any-more.html

Or from English forums:
http://www.redcafe.net/threads/does-the-fa-cup-still-matter.413761/

It matters:
"It does once you reach the semi finals, then it's a real tournament."
"It still matters, but not very much. It's still good fun for everyone involved but it's just not as important as it once was. "

About stats, this is why I can't seriously rate anyone's goals against Villanovense and in a 2nd leg against Espanyol where both teams played with a 3rd tier lineup.