Well, he did have the fixation.
Hence weird to play smug which was raised to you in a less or more polite way countless times in all manners of football talk on this board lol. But if you havent taken that on board till now then you wont at all so, hey, whatever
It has now become a question of whether or not Carlo saw some reason and will learn from 2nd half vs PSG where Camavinga introduction, sparked by keeper mistake obv, helped energise and turn the game
Dont know why you're making it binary here
It doesn't have to be either of these approaches
And your conclusion from this analysis being - it won't be close, Chelsea will smash us.
OK lol
To analyse more concretely of what 'might' happen, let's preface this by some stuff from last year's tie which is an honestly lovely juxtaposition because neither squad changed much but the team personalities and momentum did.
So:
- altogether Real was somewhat evenly matched in 1st game and quite bit poorer away from home in 2nd leg a year ago
- Real were handicapped by corona and injuries to key wide players (Mendy in 1st leg, Carvajal both legs, Ramos entered 2nd leg having not played a match in 2021), hence somewhat forced to play 3-5-2, because Nacho was ridiculously on form at LCB, Vazquez was no good at RB and only somewhat capable as RWB/RM while Odriozola dead and buried to him
- 3-5-2 CKM have not played a long stint in, Ramos never played it, and none were comfortable with it as didnt have usual outlets wide to send and what they played out of necessity
- Vinicius played right wing/RWB in 2nd leg!
- we had to play Marcelo wide for half of the first leg and reverse engineer for whatever problems he causes
- Chelsea, AFAIK, bar introduction of Reece James since then (who as things stand has barely played in 2022 and has only just come back from injury), has played full strength side in both legs
Now what is the difference
1) We (RM) are not at all at risk of playing a setup team doesnt understand due to injuries or replacements like we did - we will in all likelihood play 4-3-3 where everyone knows who does what and has been doing it for the past 6-8 months. It is a stable familiar shape to all vets and younger players alike. Only question for that is personnel and it makes a huge difference as has been the difference between slow methodical approach long as forwards dont stink it up, and energetic and often dominant and flat-out top5 competitive play allowing some more domination in opponent's half.
2) Real's left side will be secure as long as Mendy is fit, none of Chelsea players that I've seen are able to win duels against him - that's third of productivity gone. Mendy absence was key to Dembele playing Auba in but he's now back. He has played in 2nd leg but played LM/LWB aside 3CBs where Ramos had no idea what he was doing and the three CMs had no idea how to stop counters. This won't repeat. Chelsea now have to refocus on opposite flank where Carvajal is weak and has to be targeted relentlessly like he was by Mbappe and Auba/Ferran. Which Carlo does (or should by now) know and if delegates Fede to help there, will be, in theory, much easier to control.
3) Real are in far more comfortable position in league than last year where had to chase Atleti every week who also showed they were collapsing and vulnerable towards the end and out there to be got, while decimated when doing so. Doesn't help for budgeting strength towards the cup while third of the side is available
4) Chelsea are not in the league position they were in last year. On matchday where they played 1st leg they were 4 points off 3rd Leicester and West Ham + Liverpool both trying to get 4th. Matchday after beating us in 2nd leg basically same position. Meaning they are fighting both comps likely realising Real is not same team as before, know they can beat City in a single match affair and know that automatic CL spot is at stake in event somebody knocks them out in league. Now in 2022 this is different - they're in 3rd 5 points ahead of 4th Spurs and a WAY easier calendar to keep that spot. They're also in the middle of turmoil with Roman and new owners and players not wholly certain of their future. Priorities are different, now it is them looking for security rather than having something to prove.
Real quite the opposite, especially after Clasico which is just one reason to change optics.
Pure form is pointless to analyse here IMO
Chelsea just conceded 4 goals to Brentford while not being especially economic with their rotation or effort and struggle for chances all spring long
Real can barely score all spring also
Conclusion to me is Carlo will either realise this is the state of affairs and is content with 0-0 or 0-1 away from home knowing how it turned out last time.
Knowing that, if he plays CKM and absorbs like in Paris, Chelsea is not a better offensive side than Paris from what I've seen. If he does this and enters Fede later to try and get an away goal, it can work in favor and if we concede somewhere along the way and he enters both Fede and Cama, it will be easier to come out with 2-2 than 0-3 as Benzema and Vini excel when released from deep.
2nd leg is always going to be a place where we attack more I feel, whether resigned to our fate or to capitalise on good form or to exploit Chelsea weakness.
This knockout is a litmus test on whether Carlo dispassionately believes we MUST play conservative to minimise losses, but unlike PSG, I dont think there's a lot to fear from them.
I think first leg is a likely draw, with goals or without. Would take 1 goal difference coming back home TBH
Dude, If you haven't realized, I never minded admitting I was wrong when reality defies my points.
Problem is many here think the latter is the case, when it might be not. And that's a reading eventually.
Now, trying to filter out all the 'noise' from the book you wrote, and replying to the meaningful points:
->All this paragraph about the ties last season is a bit revisionist, and contains a good chunk of excuses, especially for tactical decisions that are all ZZ's and you try to pin them down to injuries and covid.
I have to disappoint you, but it was his tactical decision to play 3-5-2, he could have come up with many other plans,
and -had it worked- you will be praising him as tactical genius. So, he should take the blame respectively when it didn't work.
Secondly, I don't know how a Madritista thinks when he says that both sides were 'evenly matched', but a fair score-line would have been 0-2 or at best 1-2:
I am sparing you the map from the 2nd leg, as you admitted you were battered, and I mind your cardiac health
->About the rest:
2) Kinda problematic thinking. Chelsea plays 3-4-3, and their way of advancing doesn't go through 1v1s - especially vs full backs, game will not be decided on individual duels in general. No one in particular will be facing Mendy, at some phases of the game the RWB (James?) will be facing him, at other phases the RW(Mount? Kante?), at other phases he will be left alone.
Far from any deciding factor.
(Let alone that here you employ shitload of excuses again for the 0-4, as if Mendy or a different RB would save the day for you.
No, they wouldn't LOL Carlo messed up so much that you were as easily penetrable as butter is to knife.)
4) A lot of wishful thinking here.
Why wouldn't they want to prove things again? Why wouldn't they want to go all the way one more time and win UCL?
The whole thing about security you mention doesn't add up. Yes, I assume they would like security, how does that make them abandon or 'make 2nd priority' one of the two competitions all top 3 English clubs play to win every season? I can't see it at all
Let alone that the slap they received against Brendford has pissed Tuchel off, and they will be super motivated coming to play CL.
5) No, not at all. You wish that was the case, but it's not. Chelsea are miles better than PSG offensively (even though again that's not their best enterprise).
PSG has only Mbape as a force, which is nevertheless hindered by the two ex-footballers behind him who torture the ball, and make offensive play so slow and so not belonging to 2022 frankly...
And that means even a geriatric team can cope against them in a low block. If it weren't for Mbape's brilliance you wouldn't have conceded, despite the bad approach from Carlo - I think you can agree to that observation
Chelsea plays fast passing outside the box, and intricate movement from Haverz Mount in pockets of spaces that RM has not faced at all this season.
Let alone that any slow transition will get you skinned by Jorginho Kovasic through-balling in between your CBs and full-backs.
It also plays super good counter-pressing that allows them to basically camp outside your box. This means A LOT of shots and some of them will be higher xG.
Bar a Courtois masterclass or/and Werner-finishing by all their attackers, I don't think in this case you stand a chance to not concede (and not only once!)
I think the only chance you have to be somewhat competitive against them is if Carlo decides to go out press, but with a md of Casemiro, Valverde, Camavinga, and Rodrygo instead of Asensio, and maybe Vasquez instead of Carvahal (basically with everyone who could not follow the intensity staying on the bench), which we all know WON't happen
->The only points you bring up that I would agree, is that you are more confortable now in the league, and that you have things to prove post-classico.
But these factors are not enough to remedy for tactical abyss between Tuchel and Carlo, and the old legs your starting XI suffers from
I see confortable Chelsea win with 0 conceded. Anything between 2-0 and 4-0 (that's the score-line Juve received earlier in the season) is possible.
