Serie A 2014/2015

Who will win the scudetto this season?


  • Total voters
    69

StarLord

New member
Yeah @StarLord, your post reflects the same point I was making. Personally I think Bundesliga is just a tad more competitive (Dortmund's weak start made it easy for Bayern, as did them losing two of their key players to Bayern) from top to bottom but the quality of La Liga's top 4 is why I'd say La Liga is a very close 2nd.

Reason being, La Liga only got this competitive until AM really started doing well 2.5 years ago. They brought some much needed parity to La Liga with a team who can challenge us and Real. Three seasons ago, I think Dortmund surprised everyone and won Bundesliga while Bayern, Schalke and Leverkusen were all competitive.

I'd say right now it's neck and neck between La Liga and Bundesliga for top league. Wolfsburg performance in CL next season will be a big factor, imho, on which league is better.

The point of my post (and all the hard evidence it provides, not random BS personal opinions from fanbois) is that La Liga has been owning the rest of Europe for quite some time on any metric one chooses to apply (in fact, all relevant metrics should apply)

In terms of overall results, La Liga is far ahead of the pack. The gap between LL in 1st place, and EPL/BuLi/Serie A trailing is gargantuan (I love that word, but I rarely get the chance to use it in a sentence)

In terms of titles, again LL comes out easily on top.

And also in terms of competition, LL is again easily ahead. Even if we concede that LL is a two-horse race (not the case last season, and not even this season) it at least boasts a serious race between two serious teams. No other league has that! They tend to be one-horse races in recent years, and with lesser teams at the top. Moreover, Bundesliga, despite all the hype (people tend to overrate the Germans on just about anything) has done relatively poorly in recent years, and with some embarrassing defeats to boot. The disparities of the BuLi table are also eye-popping. The EPL, despite its colossal financial advantage continues to underwhelm and severely underperform. But it seems that no amount of failure of the EPL in Europe can stop its snowball effect in generating mythical revenues from the global economy (I am so jealous of that) Serie A has had its best season in ages (through the EL, and some cosy draws for Juventus) but still has ways to go.

How long can La Liga keep this epic run going? I don't know, but it will be hard due to the economic and demographic inferiority of Spain versus the other major European countries. If I were the LFP, I would make sure that the Super Copa is played every year in Beijing (a single game) and the Copa final played in Shanghai. I know it sucks, but it is the only way.



Next year La Liga might have 7 teams in Europe, and at least 5 of them are very serious contenders, I can even imagine 4 teams in quarters..

La Liga has 7 teams in Europe all the time. It's a prerogative of the top 3 leagues.
 

footyfan

Calma, calma
La Liga was one of the biggest 2-horse races of all time

Remember a few years back when fans of rival European leagues would always talk La Liga down for being noncompetitive and being a two-horse race and the rest of the league being piss-poor and cannon fodder and blah blah blah and yadda yadda yadda???

Let's also have a look at this season's standings in all the major the leagues to see how "competitive" each one is:

*stats about current season*

You need to start using stats that actually support your assertions. You say "remember a few years back" when everyone called La liga a 2-horse race - and then end up using stats from the current season to prove your incorrect point. Huh? Makes absolutely zero sense.

When people used to call La Liga a 2-horse race (about 3-5 years ago), it legitimately was a 2-horse race.

2009/10:

Barcelona - 99
Real Madrid - 96
Valencia - 71

3rd place team had a 25 and 28 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.

2010/11:

Barcelona - 96
Real Madrid - 92
Valencia - 71

3rd place team had a 21 and 25 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.

2011/12:

Real Madrid - 100
Barcelona - 91
Valencia - 61

3rd place team had a 30 and 39 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.

Finally, with Atletico Madrid's arrival, La Liga had a bit more competition. However, even in 2012/13, the league was never competitive, with the leaders Barca having a 15 point lead over the second placed team by December.

2012/13:

Barcelona - 100
Real Madrid - 85
Atletico Madrid - 76

3rd place team had a 9 and 24 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.

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Compare these gaps with other leagues in those times:

2009/10:

Germany - 3rd place team had a 4 and 9 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.
England - 3rd place team had a 10 and 11 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.
Italy - 3rd place team had a 10 and 12 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.

2010/11:

Germany - 3rd place team had a 3 and 10 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.
England - 3rd place team had a 0 and 9 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.
Italy - 3rd place team had a 6 and 12 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.

2011/12:

Germany - 3rd place team had a 9 and 17 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.
England - 3rd place team had a 19 and 19 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.
Italy - 3rd place team had a 16 and 20 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.

2012/13:

Germany - 3rd place team had a 1 and 26 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.
England - 3rd place team had a 3 and 14 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.
Italy - 3rd place team had a 6 and 15 point gap respectively from 2nd and 1st place.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


If you were to add up the difference between 3rd place and 1st+2nd place over all 4 seasons: (lower score means less of a two-horse race)

- Germany has a score of 79
- England has a score of 85
- Italy has a score of 97

- Spain has a score of 201!!!!


And that's not just it. In each of those 4 seasons, the top 2 in Spain has only been Barcelona and Real Madrid. In contrast:

- Germany had Bayern, Dortmund, Leverkusen and Schalke (4 teams)
- England has had Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United (3 teams)
- Italy has had Inter, Roma, AC Milan, Juventus, Napoli (5 teams)



La Liga not only had by far the biggest two-horse race in terms of sheer points differential, but they also had the least diversity in the teams that reached the top 2.
 
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footyfan

Calma, calma
I realize this is probably better represented visually, and I had the time to do it. So, to further underscore La Liga's lopsidedness:



2j0o7ki.jpg
 

Icarium

Lifestealer
Real and Barca are just too big, in fact two biggest clubs in the world. It is unavoidable. Other teams have no money to compete. Probably need some great tv deal like in prem to change things. Until then it is going to be the same.
 

Alarcón

New member
Can any Inter fan tell me why Shaqiri starts so rarely? Every time he comes on he seems to be one of the best.
 

StarLord

New member
To those who genuinely follow Italian football. How have the Milan managed to fall so low? I mean they still generate considerable revenue, they should be at least be in the Top 3, or even battling it out with Juventus, yet they have become mid-table and are nowhere in Europe.
 

StarLord

New member
You need to start using stats that actually support your assertions. You say "remember a few years back" when everyone called La liga a 2-horse race - and then end up using stats from the current season to prove your incorrect point. Huh? Makes absolutely zero sense.

When people used to call La Liga a 2-horse race (about 3-5 years ago), it legitimately was a 2-horse race.

La Liga not only had by far the biggest two-horse race in terms of sheer points differential, but they also had the least diversity in the teams that reached the top 2.


You either completely misunderstood my point, or you deliberately ignored the point I was making.

My post did not at any point make the claim that La Liga was not a two-horse race between 09/10 and 11/12 (or even 12/13)

What I said was this:
Remember a few years back when fans of rival European leagues would always talk La Liga down for being noncompetitive and being a two-horse race and the rest of the league being piss-poor and cannon fodder and blah blah blah and yadda yadda yadda???

I do not make any claim that in for example, 10/11, La Liga was not a two-horse race. My point was precisely that the fans of rival European leagues would use the "two-horse race" stick to beat down La Liga with! I thought that that much was clear!

The "two-horse race" argument, or "sunny SPL" analogy, were used to insinuate or make the outright claim that the overall quality of the league was really low, and inferior to that of EPL/Serie A and Bundesliga. I have been following these discussions for some time, and I clearly remember people claiming that Barcelona could not win the EPL, or that Messi could never score nearly as many goals over there etc etc etc. It is precisely out of these false claims that the "Cold Monday night at Stoke" meme was created!

While you are absolutely right in that the gap between Real & Barca and the rest of the league was gargantuan for 3 years or so, this has been at least partly rectified in recent years which was precisely the point of my post and the undisputed evidence I provided. If we take the last two seasons for example, La Liga has in fact been more competitive than the rest of the major European leagues. Yet we do not hear these same people who were so vehement in their criticism of La Liga back then, come around and praise La Liga for its competitiveness and mock the rest of the major leagues for their own lack of competitiveness.

This was precisely the reason why I ended my post by saying this:

And virtually none of these people who were so critical of La Liga come out to admit they were horribly mistaken. In fact some continue to repeat the same inanities.


But in any case, if you look at the statistics that I provided, you would see that competitiveness was not my main concern, and it will never be. There are several minor leagues across Europe that are far more competitive than any of the major ones. Does that make them great? No way!

The main thrust of my argument was of course overall quality.


Any which way one chooses to measure quality, then La Liga comes out ahead, or streets ahead. Champions Leagues won, Europa Leagues won, Super Cups won etc etc etc. The most relevant statistic though is the 5-year moving average that does not deal only with isolated results here and there, but with all the results, of all the teams from all leagues taking part in any European competition.

By that most objective measure, we get this very interesting result:


1. Spain: 98.142

2. England: 80.391

3. Germany: 79.129

4. Italy: 69.676


FYI, that is the grandest differential between the top league and the rest of the pack in the history of UEFA competitions. La Liga may be a boring two-horse race to some people's eyes, but in the race for European league supremacy, there is only one horse, and that is Spanish! Yet some people in the football world (and even on this forum for crying out loud) do not acknowledge this monumental achievement on the part of Spanish football. I will also have to point out that Spain (out of the four countries concerned) is the by far the weakest in terms of both demographics and economics, something which makes this whole thing even more astonishing than it already appears to be.

The big question here though is this: Can this situation last? Any rational calculation would definitely say that no, this cannot go on for much longer. In my opinion, and as I have expressed in another post, the only way for La Liga to remain competitive in Europe, and maybe even retain some of its advantage, is to enter the still largely untapped Chinese market (this is why Real and Barca have been playing early in the last couple of seasons) and also the Americas, not only Spanish and Portuguese speaking Latin America, but also the USA where there is a massive Spanish-speaking population.
 
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XaviMessiGirl

New member
Can any Inter fan tell me why Shaqiri starts so rarely? Every time he comes on he seems to be one of the best.

It's similar to Kovacic situation where if he started regularly he'd be inconsistent, they've both had some unimpressive games as well as great ones. They are both still young and gradually turning them into regular first team players is probably the best call right now.


Dreamy finish

:masip:


To those who genuinely follow Italian football. How have the Milan managed to fall so low? I mean they still generate considerable revenue, they should be at least be in the Top 3, or even battling it out with Juventus, yet they have become mid-table and are nowhere in Europe.

It's an ownership issue mainly, and with that has brought a long string of mediocre players and inexperienced coaches. That's why most Milan fans want Berlusconi to sell the club. Also, they (and Italian clubs in general) don't have anywhere near as much money as PSG, City, Chelsea, Barca, Madrid, Bayern, etc to compete in the market even if they tried. That's why many have become notorious for signing players for cheap/free or on loan with option to buy. Juve are a semi-exception (and even they still do the cheap deals) because they own their own stadium and get extra revenue from that.
 

StarLord

New member
Another beauty from Pirlo!

Juventus are a very solid, if unspectacular team.

Edit: As I say this, Juventus concede to Torino, 1-1 at HT. Still, no worries for Juve, their title has long been in the bag.

Edit 2: Torino turn it around, Juventus indifferent.
 
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XaviMessiGirl

New member
20 years since Torino last beat Juve. Darmian with goal and assist, if Braida was there like it was reported then surely we have to open negotiations for him.
 

XaviMessiGirl

New member
Carpi promoted to Serie A for the first time in their history, after last season having been promoted to Serie B for the first time in their history. Good for them.
 

Leo_Messi

New member
Carpi promoted to Serie A for the first time in their history, after last season having been promoted to Serie B for the first time in their history. Good for them.

They are the Italian version of Eibar. I would personally have preferred a bigger and more traditional club to be promoted instead of them.

Bologna should definitely return to Serie A and I would like to see a traditional club like Pro Vercelli back too along with Bari. The first two have won a total of 14 scudetti!
 

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