Not even when Sneijder had a sextuple plus WC final he could took away Messi's trophy. This Messi is even a better player, with an even higher status. When Messi drops the level a lot(not Barcelona trophies wise) only then other players have a chance to take the trophy away from him
The difference is that Sneijder was not arguably the 2nd best player in the world that season. He was just the best player on a treble winning team and WC Finalist. Ronaldo is arguably the 2nd best player in the world (I say arguably because Xavi and Iniesta certainly have arguments for it too) and is scoring goals at an insane and historic rate that is going to ultimately put him in the all-time-great category.
If there is a player who is the 2nd best in the world, playing at an all-time-great level and he wins important trophies over the best player in the world at the time, then it is not far-fetched for him to get the Ballon D'or.
EDIT: With that said, I happen to think that Messi will still win it, both because I do not think Madrid will get the CL, and because I think Messi is enough better than Ronaldo to still probably win even if Madrid did get the CL.