This Ballon d'or debate is getting tiring at this point. But I can't help but reply to this.
The reason Messi won the ballon d'or despite only winning Copa del rey is that he had an outstanding season, a feat that has never been managed in the 100+ year history of football, scoring 91 goals, AND Leading Barcelona to a record breaking 49 out of 51 points by December that had left Madrid 10 points adrift
Ronaldo has done nothing close to that, he scored 58 goals, and won NOTHING in 2013, not even the Copa del rey. His team has been dicked about by their two biggest rivals this season, lagging 6 points behind e.t.c.
Ronaldo will have to beat Messi's record before he comes into the conversation. He's a distant third at the moment.
This so much, and I agree the debate is getting tiring. 2012 was an exceptional year for Messi number-wise, not comparable to Ronaldo's 2013
at all. He scored loads of goals against shitty teams, and 5 of the goals he scored more than Messi were freaking penalties.
If the voters really went so much by numbers, which they don't, they surely have noticed the fact that despite Ronaldo's form, he didn't get anywhere close to breaking Messi's insane record and failed in the only two big games this season (Atletico and Real Madrid) and with Portugal, something that Messi can't be accused of at all in 2012.
Ronaldo will get into the top 3 because of his name and status, but he has little to no chance to win it.
I dont know how voting works but if its a what have you done lately scenario, then ronaldo is winning it hands down. Messi's injurys have realy hurt him this year.
I've noticed that many think the voting has some complicated logic to it, with the voters evaluating a catalogue of specific criteria, while in fact, it's just a mixture of "Who is the best player" and "Who has achieved great things this year". Before Messi, the second aspect probably weighed much more, but since Messi stepped onto the stage, those things are shaken up a bit. He gets a fair number of votes just because he is Messi, while others vote for him because individually, he's simply the best player. Then there's a large group who vote for who had the best year based on trophies or individual achievements, but even those include Messi in their top 3 (which gives Messi quite some points). I don't know the exact percentage of voters who didn't include Messi anywhere in their top 3, but it's negligibly small (Real Madrid and Portugal players among them).
So, this is how it works. I don't think that in any year, the goal count was a decisive factor, except for 2012 which was an exception due to what big_man already described and which was nothing like Ronaldo's 2013.