9 - Robert Lewandowski

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BBZ8800

BBZ8800

Senior Member
serghei said:
Going from 50 goals to just 45 is getting worse. A Lewa getting worse is still easily one of the best 5 strikers in the world at the minute.

BBZ believes he will fall from a clif next season. We will see shortly.
Click to expand...

CR7:
2014/15 = 4164 minutes, 58 goals
2015/16 = 4294 minutes, 51 goals
2016/17 = 3744, 37 goals
2017/18 = 3463, 41 goals
==============
2018/19 = 3438, 27 goals
2019/20 = 3631, 35 goals
2020/21 = 3373, 33 goals
==============
2021/22 = 3071, 24 goals

Goals per minute over seasons:
2015: 72 minutes
2016: 84 minutes
2017: 101 minutes
2018: 84 minutes
==============
2019: 127 minutes
2020: 104 minutes
2021: 102 minutes
==============
2022: 128 minutes

Now, look at CR7's example some key patterns from his stats/graph.

1. he went from playing 4000 minutes at La Liga + CL in Real to 3400 at Juve, to 3000 at Man Utd
= so, we can see how the age is catching on him and how over years he gradually plays less and less minutes
2. minutes per goal: from 80-85 minutes per goal at RM to 110 at Juve and to 130 at Man Utd
= here we can see BOTH: over years his goals per minute ratio is dropping BUT ALSO, whenever he moved to a new club, his numbers (or goals per minute) dropped a lot, by 30 minutes from RM to Juve, 20 minutes from Juve to Man Utd, and 50 (!!) minutes from RM to Man Utd.
Especially BOTh in his 1st season at Juve and Man Utd, his ratio was around 130 minutes needed for 1 goal.
From 84 minutes in his last RM's season.

Now, let's move to Lewa:
1. he is getting older (lol) every month/season
That means that he will play less and less minutes
2. his goals per minute will drop with age
3. his goal tally will drop a lot due to:
1) him getting older and playing less minutes
2) due to his goals per minute ratio getting lower each season due to age
3) when you pair those two = you get way less goals
4. everything mentioned above doesn't even take into the account = him not clicking here. Everything from above is in "perfect conditions".
So, if he'll click well = he'll still drop his form massively
On the other hand, if he'll have problems adjusting to La Liga, his numbers will drop even more massively.
I mean, just look at Cr7 from RM to Juve and Man Utd

I don't even dare to post Messi's numbers:
From 127 and 101 minutes per goal in his last 2 seasons at Barca to 253 minutes per goal at Psg.

** stats which I used are for league + CL matches, taken from Whoscored

So, the best 2 goalscorers ever, Messi and CR7 have dropped a lot at Juve, Man Utd and Psg, but mighty Lewa will bang 40-50 goals at Barca in his debut season.
Ok, let's see...
 
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T

Temptation

Well-known member
These are all very different players.

They have nothing in common

Messi and Ronaldo's career trend/trajectory doesn't apply to Lewandowski and vice versa.
 
Rassvet

Rassvet

Well-known member
BBZ8800 said:
CR7:
2014/15 = 4164 minutes, 58 goals
2015/16 = 4294 minutes, 51 goals
2016/17 = 3744, 37 goals
2017/18 = 3463, 41 goals
==============
2018/19 = 3438, 27 goals
2019/20 = 3631, 35 goals
2020/21 = 3373, 33 goals
==============
2021/22 = 3071, 24 goals

Goals per minute over seasons:
2015: 72 minutes
2016: 84 minutes
2017: 101 minutes
2018: 84 minutes
==============
2019: 127 minutes
2020: 104 minutes
2021: 102 minutes
==============
2022: 128 minutes

Now, look at CR7's example some key patterns from his stats/graph.

1. he went from playing 4000 minutes at La Liga + CL in Real to 3400 at Juve, to 3000 at Man Utd
= so, we can see how the age is catching on him and how over years he gradually plays less and less minutes
2. minutes per goal: from 80-85 minutes per goal at RM to 110 at Juve and to 130 at Man Utd
= here we can see BOTH: over years his goals per minute ratio is dropping BUT ALSO, whenever he moved to a new club, his numbers (or goals per minute) dropped a lot, by 30 minutes from RM to Juve, 20 minutes from Juve to Man Utd, and 50 (!!) minutes from RM to Man Utd.
Especially BOTh in his 1st season at Juve and Man Utd, his ratio was around 130 minutes needed for 1 goal.
From 84 minutes in his last RM's season.

Now, let's move to Lewa:
1. he is getting older (lol) every month/season
That means that he will play less and less minutes
2. his goals per minute will drop with age
3. his goal tally will drop a lot due to:
1) him getting older and playing less minutes
2) due to his goals per minute ratio getting lower each season due to age
3) when you pair those two = you get way less goals
4. everything mentioned above doesn't even take into the account = him not clicking here. Everything from above is in "perfect conditions".
So, if he'll click well = he'll still drop his form massively
On the other hand, if he'll have problems adjusting to La Liga, his numbers will drop even more massively.
I mean, just look at Cr7 from RM to Juve and Man Utd

I don't even dare to post Messi's numbers:
From 127 and 101 minutes per goal in his last 2 seasons at Barca to 253 minutes per goal at Psg.

** stats which I used are for league + CL matches, taken from Whoscored

So, the best 2 goalscorers ever, Messi and CR7 have dropped a lot at Juve, Man Utd and Psg, but mighty Lewa will bang 40-50 goals at Barca in his debut season.
Ok, let's see...
Click to expand...

A lot to unpack in there. I think the Messi dropoff is a bit different, so I'll just focus on the CR-Lewa comparison.

1. Ronaldo's drop in minutes didn't have that much to do with age. Madrid reached the CL final in his last three seasons compared the him getting Ro16 exits last few years which is a 450 minute difference. He also played more minutes in the domestic cup competitions these last four years than he did during his final Madrid seasons so the difference in minutes played across all comps is even less.

2. Ronaldo was moving to teams that were significant downgrades in quality from what he had at Madrid and in the case of 18/19 at Juve also played a far more defensive style. I don't think either are concerns for Lewa given the quality Barca has going forward and the team playing much more attacking than Allegri's Juve.
 
T

Temptation

Well-known member
Rassvet said:
A lot to unpack in there. I think the Messi dropoff is a bit different, so I'll just focus on the CR-Lewa comparison.

1. Ronaldo's drop in minutes didn't have that much to do with age. Madrid reached the CL final in his last three seasons compared the him getting Ro16 exits last few years which is a 450 minute difference. He also played more minutes in the domestic cup competitions these last four years than he did during his final Madrid seasons so the difference in minutes played across all comps is even less.

2. Ronaldo was moving to teams that were significant downgrades in quality from what he had at Madrid and in the case of 18/19 at Juve also played a far more defensive style. I don't think either are concerns for Lewa given the quality Barca has going forward and the team playing much more attacking than Allegri's Juve.
Click to expand...
Great post as usual.
 
KingLeo10

KingLeo10

Senior Member
Messi was scoring 50 goals a season at an age when CR7 was mostly a 20 goal a season show-pony and Lewa was in Polish league.

Different players with different peaks. Lewa won't fall off a cliff but he most likely won't also score 50 goals this season like he was at Bayern.
 
BBZ8800

BBZ8800

Senior Member
Rassvet said:
2. Ronaldo was moving to teams that were significant downgrades in quality from what he had at Madrid and in the case of 18/19 at Juve also played a far more defensive style. I don't think either are concerns for Lewa given the quality Barca has going forward and the team playing much more attacking than Allegri's Juve.
Click to expand...

Barca last season 68 goals in 38 matches = 1,79 goals per match
Bayern 97 in 34 matches = 2,85 goals per match

Bayern had 678 shots over 34 matches = 20 shots per match
Barca had 14 shots per match over 38 rounds.

So, even in terms of shots, Lewa will get 33% less shots than at Bayern (even if he clicks perfectly).
Someone might say that in Germany teams play weird defense and that there is way more room (and time) to shoot without anyone on your back.
 
Z

Zidane82

Well-known member
BBZ8800 said:
Barca last season 68 goals in 38 matches = 1,79 goals per match
Bayern 97 in 34 matches = 2,85 goals per match

Bayern had 678 shots over 34 matches = 20 shots per match
Barca had 14 shots per match over 38 rounds.

So, even in terms of shots, Lewa will get 33% less shots than at Bayern (even if he clicks perfectly).
Someone might say that in Germany teams play weird defense and that there is way more room (and time) to shoot without anyone on your back.
Click to expand...
We did not have Raphinha and a flying fit Dembele all last season ..
Plus Pedri and Gavi will be a year older and even more effective .
We will create loads of chances this season ..
Bernardo Silva would be dream-like

Also I do not buy your theory that Spanish defences are better than German ones
 
Rassvet

Rassvet

Well-known member
BBZ8800 said:
Barca last season 68 goals in 38 matches = 1,79 goals per match
Bayern 97 in 34 matches = 2,85 goals per match

Bayern had 678 shots over 34 matches = 20 shots per match
Barca had 14 shots per match over 38 rounds.

So, even in terms of shots, Lewa will get 33% less shots than at Bayern (even if he clicks perfectly).
Someone might say that in Germany teams play weird defense and that there is way more room (and time) to shoot without anyone on your back.
Click to expand...

Fair point but those are the numbers for last season's Barca without Lewa, without any of the new signings from this summer, only half a season from the january signings, and with players like Fati, Dembele, and Pedri injured for long stretches.

Barca next season should be capable of getting around 2.3-2.5 goals per game imo.
 
FinBarcelonafan

FinBarcelonafan

Well-known member
BBZ8800 said:
Barca last season 68 goals in 38 matches = 1,79 goals per match
Bayern 97 in 34 matches = 2,85 goals per match

Bayern had 678 shots over 34 matches = 20 shots per match
Barca had 14 shots per match over 38 rounds.

So, even in terms of shots, Lewa will get 33% less shots than at Bayern (even if he clicks perfectly).
Someone might say that in Germany teams play weird defense and that there is way more room (and time) to shoot without anyone on your back.
Click to expand...

Comparing stats from a season we had Abde-Luuk Deajong-Jutgla attack for us

I would say not fair
 
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