Ernesto Valverde - V1

M

MessiCam

Guest
That doesnt mean the defence was stronger last year.

It is more about quality of chances and giving keeper a chance to save them.
Yes and no again, because last year the problem was in midfield caused by Messi completely abandoning his position. But what it does mean is that our goals conceded has a lot more to do with MaTS since the xGA (chance quality) at this point in the season is higher than last year.

This was something many of us brought up earlier in the season too but it fell on deaf ears. The whole notion that a 2 man central midfield is better than 3 man central midfield in terms of both attack and defence is seriously warped. Some fans are only now finding that out because Valverde no longer has the luxury of fielding 4 CM’s in his 4-4-2 because he’d be neutered in attack like against Chelsea. How often have you seen Valverde bring on an additional CM since mid January just to regain some control of midfield in big matches? Hell even against some minnows the 2 man central midfield is struggling.

Regarding your previous post I believe teams that defend as an attacking unit defend a lot better than teams that allow you to have the ball.

Where are the Ter Stegen saves per game from?
The stats are from Opta but scratch those stats. I read it very wrong in my haste. Apologies.
 

JamDav1982

Senior Member
Yes and no again, because last year the problem was in midfield caused by Messi completely abandoning his position. But what it does mean is that our goals conceded has a lot more to do with MaTS since the xGA (chance quality) at this point in the season is higher than last year.

This was something many of us brought up earlier in the season too but it fell on deaf ears. The whole notion that a 2 man central midfield is better than 3 man central midfield in terms of both attack and defence is seriously warped. Some fans are only now finding that out because Valverde no longer has the luxury of fielding 4 CM’s in his 4-4-2 because he’d be neutered in attack like against Chelsea. How often have you seen Valverde bring on an additional CM since mid January just to regain some control of midfield in big matches? Hell even against some minnows the 2 man central midfield is struggling.

Regarding your previous post I believe teams that defend as an attacking unit defend a lot better than teams that allow you to have the ball.

You just pick and choose when to apply xGA and again that doesnt tell whole story of how good the chances were as I said.

Using xGA Barca have top defence in best league in world.

Where are you getting the stats for TS facing more shots this season?

The stats are from Opta but scratch those stats. I read it very wrong in my haste. Apologies.

So if quote the stats correct it points to Barca having better defence this season?
 

Joan

Well-known member
To be fair we pressed like that becuase 1)We needed to score 2)We were facing Roma.

Against Real at the Bernabeu for example we didn't press at all, we had 8 players behind the ball with Messi and Suarez upfront.

Not true completely. We didn't press as hard as them but we did some nice pressing, especially in the 2nd half when it proved to be crucial.

Paulinho's only aim was to press Kroos in order to disable their build up. It worked quite well.
 
M

MessiCam

Guest
You just pick and choose when to apply xGA and again that doesnt tell whole story of how good the chances were as I said.

Using xGA Barca have top defence in best league in world.

Where are you getting the stats for TS facing more shots this season?

How am I am picking and choosing when to apply the xGA? It’s pretty self explanatory.
 
M

MessiCam

Guest
You agree that Barca have the best defence in the top league in the world and we can use xGA to compare teams?

You do pick and choose when to apply that rule.

Yes Barça do have the best defence in La Liga as well as the lowest xGA but that xGA is higher than at the same point last year.

So what does that tell you? Bare in mind that the xGA measure the quality of the chance not whether it’s been saved or not.

My error previously was using total saves and not saves from inside the box in the current season. Shots on target per game faced from inside the box is 2 this season vs the 2.6 last year. We concede 6.3 shots inside the box though as opposed to 5.6 last year.
 

JamDav1982

Senior Member
Yes Barça do have the best defence in La Liga as well as the lowest xGA but that xGA is higher than at the same point last year.

So what does that tell you? Bare in mind that the xGA measure the quality of the chance not whether it’s been saved or not.

My error previously was using total saves and not saves from inside the box in the current season. Shots on target per game faced from inside the box is 2 this season vs the 2.6 last year. We concede 6.3 shots inside the box though as opposed to 5.6 last year.

So you used those stats to show Barca defence better last year so now they show opposite is defence better this year?

Less work for Ter Stegen to do.

Ter Stegan made more saves last year. Better defending so less shots on target.

Does Bayern and Barca having almost identical xGA and one in much better league not suggest Barca has better defence to you?

Let alone Barca have conceded less in the better league and in CL.
 
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Horatio

You're welcome
[MENTION=17987]LeeRomeno[/MENTION] had that great analysis somewhere. Don't know where it was. I remember he concluded we faced more shots but those were poorer ones and from distance.
Don't know if he's updated it.

I know you talk about shots on target but I can't recall that part.

Yeah I specifically meant shots on target. Facing more shots from distance is actually a positive thing because it means teams have trouble entering the box so they have to try from distance.
 

LeeRomeno

Active member
[MENTION=17987]LeeRomeno[/MENTION] had that great analysis somewhere. Don't know where it was. I remember he concluded we faced more shots but those were poorer ones and from distance.
Don't know if he's updated it.

I know you talk about shots on target but I can't recall that part.

Hey! yea as of today per game:
Name, Shots, Shots on target, Goals, Shots against, Shots against on target, Goals against:
Barcelona; 15.48; 7.39; 2.55; 10.58; 3.06; 0.52
Real: 18.71; 7.55; 2.48; 10.13; 3.9; 1.10
Atletico: 10.84; 4.32; 1.65; 11.71; 3.39; 0.48

We are by far the most clinical of the bunch, 47.71% of all our shots are on target, second best here is Valencia with 40,7 and Real with 40,4. This also means that 16.46% of our shots ends up being goal. This is best in La Liga again. We are not among the best when it comes to goals from shots on target, which tells me that our overall shots are just of better quality, but the ones we hit on target, get saved as often as other teams.
If we look at shots against, then Eibar leads the bunch with only 8.35 shots per game received. What is astonishing is the % of shots on target against team. By far 2 best teams in La Liga here are Atletico Madrid with only 4.13% of shots against being on target and us with 4.88. My logic tells me, those 2 teams manage to avoid opposition getting into good shooting position best. Next in line are Valencia and Villareal with over 7% already.
If we look at goals received from shots on target (shows goalkeeping level), Atletico and Barcelona excel here again with Atletico conceding 14.29% of shots on target and us 16.80%, then big gap until Valencia 23%. Real here at 28%.

Some other top teams to compare here:
Name, Shots, Shots on target, Goals, Shots against, Shots against on target, Goals against:
Barcelona; 15.48; 7.39; 2.55; 10.58; 3.06; 0.52
City; 17.56; 7.03; 2.81; 6.34; 2.28; 0.75
Liverpool; 16.94; 6.21; 2.27; 7.39; 2.73; 1.06
Bayern; 17.55; 6.69; 2.62; 8.62; 2.83; 0.72
Juventus; 14.84; 5.58; 2.39; 7.94; 2.32; 0.58

Looking at data here, City has 40.04% of shots on target, falling way behind us here. City similar to us with goals from shots with 16%. This for me tells they have scored more from long range position, but on average, us and City score on similar rate, but as they shoot more, they have a bit more goals as well. When we look at shots against being on target, noone in premier gets close to us and Atletico as well, with Burnley showing best stats at 5.81%. City here is one of the worst with 11.8% of all shots received being on target. Best goalkeeper in Premier according to this data is De Gea with 19% of shots on target going in. Also a bit worse than us and Oblak. Liverpool is worst btw in this category with 39% of shots going in.
So yes, City is a bit more dangerous attack-wise, but is weaker in defense and considerably weaker in goalkeeping.
Bayern has 38% of shots on target, not even best in Bundesliga, best in goals from shots though with 14.93, still below our level. Bayern is not surprisingly best in defense for Bundesliga with only 8.4% of shots against being on target. Again far behind us and Atletico. Their goalkeeping not on par with us and Atletico aswell.
Last but not least Juve, they have pretty impressive 16.09% of all shots going in, but they dont get to shoot as much as us. Nothing spectacular in defense with 30% of shots against being on target (Inter best here) and 7.32% of all shots going in.

For all the Mourinho admirers here:
Name, Shots, Shots on target, Goals, Shots against, Shots against on target, Goals against:
Barcelona; 15.48; 7.39; 2.55; 10.58; 3.06; 0.52
ManU; 13.44; 5; 1.97; 11.81; 4; 0.78

Only category ManU is looking great is goalkeeping really.

So as conclusion, we are still very much one of the best attacking sides in Europe. Yes, indeed we do not shoot as much as many others, but when we do, we do it at really dangerous positions and score alot. From top 4 leagues and City and Bayern have scored more per game and difference is not that much. IN addition, Valverde has really turned us into a defensive behemoth. Not that opposition does not shoot, but they almost never manage to shoot from good positions. Only team in Europe on par with us is Atletico Madrid, rest are behind. And Atletico is way unbalanced towards defense as show by their goal stats, to be a real contender.

And last bit of data: % of opposition shots that we concede/% of our shots turning into goals
17/18: 4.88 (second best) / 16.46 (best)
16/17: 10.54 (only 5th best in La Liga) 17.90 (best)
15/16: 7.95 (4th best) / 18.54 (best)
14/15: 6.89 (best in La Liga - treble season) / 17.57 (best)
13/14: 9.85 (6th best) / 15.55 (best)
12/13: 11.93 (16th best) / 21.60 (best)
11/12: 10.51 (11th best) / 18.30 (best)
10/11: 7.47 (best in La Liga) / 16.07 (best)
09/10: 7.38 (best in La Liga) / 16.50 (best)
08/09: 13.21 (19th best) / 14.85 (best)

For last 10 years, we have been best in La Liga every year in converting our shots, including this season. Defensively, we have never been as good as now though, not even close, only seasons that resemble current are Peps 09-11 and Luchos treble.
 

Joan

Well-known member
Brilliant work, [MENTION=17987]LeeRomeno[/MENTION]. Thanks.

Can't believe the numbers are this good.
 
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